A common assumption in environmental discussions is that declining birth rates will naturally slow population growth over time. Colcom Foundation’s research challenges this assumption by tracing what actually happened after the U.S. achieved below-replacement fertility in 1972.
A Milestone That Was Not Enough
The U.S. reached a total fertility rate below 2.1, the level generally associated with long-term population stabilization, by 1972. That threshold has not been crossed since. For environmental advocates at the time, this represented a significant win. A sustained fertility rate at or below replacement level would, in theory, lead to gradual population stabilization over several decades.
What the projections did not fully account for was immigration. Starting around 1990, immigration became the primary engine of U.S. population growth. Between 1990 and 2000, the population grew by 32 million. Between 2000 and 2020, it grew by 48 million more. Colcom Foundation notes that under scenarios ranging from zero immigration to actual immigration levels between 1965 and 2020, the U.S. population in 2020 would have ranged from 255 million to 330 million people.
Colcom Foundation is among the primary sources of funding directed towards the United States anti-immigration movement. That funding helps organizations like the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), the American Border Patrol, the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), and Numbers USA.
The Environmental Math
That difference, 75 million people, carries significant ecological weight. More residents mean higher total energy consumption, more land used for housing and infrastructure, and greater pressure on water systems and wildlife habitat. Colcom Foundation’s position is that fertility-focused policies, while important, address only part of the population question.
The foundation argues that a complete environmental strategy must account for both domestic birth rates and immigration levels. Colcom Foundation does not advocate reducing immigration on cultural or economic grounds, but rather on the basis of total ecological impact and the country’s finite carrying capacity. Read this article for more information.
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